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Murphy leads Gibson early in election for NY's 20th Congressional District

Sep 02, 2010 10:57 pm

Rep. Scott Murphy raised $63,000 more than Republican challenger Chris Gibson this summer, and has $1.45 million in the bank, more than Gibson's $526,334, according to the campaigns. Murphy raised $325,000 from July 1 to Aug. 25, and Gibson raised $261,955. Murphy has two ads on the air regionally now, Gibson's campaign has yet to roll out a TV ad. The New York Times has moved the race from "lean Democrat" to "toss-up," and back to "lean Democrat." The Cook Political Report also rates the contest "Leans D." The campaign's first poll is out, from the conservative American Action Forum, and it shows Murphy leading Kinderhook's Gibson 45 to 40 percent, with a 4.9 percent margin of error. Given the poll's conservative bent and the large margin of error, it is possible that Murphy has a slightly larger lead currently, but probably not above the 50 percent mark. The poll also found just 37 percent name recognition for Gibson, compared to Murphy’s 91 percent name recognition. That means Gibson has lots of room to impress voters who will soon know his name when TV ads air. Gibson also is winning more national Republican support lately, which may help make up that fundraising disadvantage. Tuesday Gibson was advanced to the top tier of the National Republican Congressional Committee's "Young Guns" program, who, according to the National Journal, along with 51 others, "represent some of the GOP's top pickup opportunities this fall." Nationally, polls indicate there may be many Republicans replacing Democrats in other House of Representative elections. Locally, Gibson has far more signs on lawns, and has for months, perhaps earlier than some municipalities allow. That may be a sign of passionate, dedicated volunteers, which would help get out the vote on election day. Surely, calling this race one way or the other would be premature.
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