Hallenbeck likely next Hudson mayor
Nov 11, 2011 12:15 am
Put on your Nate Silver caps everyone: Republican William Hallenbeck currently leads Democrat Nick Haddad in the Hudson mayoral election by 27 votes. There are, reportedly, about 200 absentee ballots left. Let's pretend for a moment that there are exactly 200. Haddad would have to poll 28 more votes than Hallenbeck to win. So that would be 114-86. That would mean Haddad would have to win 57 percent of the absentee ballots. While some might suggest that absentee ballots tend to be more Democrat than Republican, if they are largely from military serving overseas, they tend to be Republican. In Hudson, there may be more second home owners, who could be expected to lean to the Democrat, then military. And, of course, there may be a few votes recounted, or discovered, but, still, Nick Haddad would have to poll at least 57 percent to overcome the current deficit to William Hallenbeck in a 200-absentee vote situation. That's not impossible, but is unlikely. While pundits and politicos claim it is now up the the absentee votes or the lawyers, actually, the election rests mostly on what we know: Hallenbeck leads by 27 votes, and that probably will be too much to overcome by any new information.