Matthew Hamilton in Capitol Confidential reports that in New York, a Long Island special election for the 9th Senate district will be more important then the presidential poll on April 19. The Long Island election will decide who rules the State Senate in Albany. The seat was vacated when Republican Dean Skelos, the Senate majority leader, was convicted of corruption charges in December. A Siena College poll out March 15 has Democratic Assemblyman Todd Kaminsky leading 47-45 over Republican Chris McGrath. That's well within the 4.5 percent margin of error of the poll, and with turnout possibly surging because of the presidential campaign, this contest may be difficult to predict. If Kaminsky wins though, Democrats would have a 32-31 majority in the Senate, though currently several Democrats caucus with Republicans. See the full story in Capitol Confidential.